About sensor development – the likelihood of new tech trickling down from B2B, defense, is not to be discounted. Look at the specific camera used for the Sphere in Las Vegas. Funded by a billionaire, the economics of the sphere do make sense.
This is a huge sensor:
Would be nice to see a 3x3 inch sensor with 300 megapixels strapped onto 4x5 cameras. The sensor is produced in batches of 12:
Another application for higher res, larger sensors could be next generation of virtual reality and reality capture.
I am thinking of Holodeck type stuff, yes.
As CPU and GPUs become more powerful and data throughpout increases, we might approach a new (intoxicating) level of immersion with ultra high resolution VR headsets based on high res immersive video captured by such large sensors which could drive demand.
The Sphere in Las Vegas already does this on a large scale whereby visitors are transported into different world by being positioned in a huge video sphere which displays video content captured by the 300 megapixel big sky camera. This is real right now and on a smaller scale such venues could proliferate down the line; think about meeting rooms where you can in real time be transported into a different part of the world in a highly immersive video feed captured by a large sensor like big sky’s.
Think the sphere video feed in a future version of Apple's upcoming Reality Pro Headset which is bound to be released in a few weeks. It has 23 megapixels live video capability processed in real-time by a high performance small nanometer custom chip.
Its just that photographers won't drive the evolution, but they could benefit from demand via other areas and being a second line use case. Ie if demand for next gen sensors creates ultra high dynamic range breakthroughs surpassing negative film we might just have a company like Phase One strap it into a box costing 60k selling it to enthusiasts for photographic purposes. Arri already achieved and commercialized color neg DR equivalence; the tech just needs to be shrunk now.
Think also of night vision and military or robotic vision – they need all the sensitivity and DR they can get to interpret the world in real time. A robot in a war zone will greatly benefit having two 200 megapixel high dynamic range "eyes" to identify threats and interpret the surroundings. Once developed, I see no reason why a company like P1 wouldn't just use that for plain old photography.
Its just that we've hit an in-between performance plateau, accompanied by some economic problems like inflation driven by covid, wars, but the journey might continue before you know it! I am sure if you go back in history through camera companie's camera releases you will find phases of a few years with no new products and then all of a sudden a rush of next-gen.
There are just too many exciting applications for high res high DR sensods in other fields that it is unrealistic to me that we won’t see at one point a next digital back.
I just hope at this stage we won't see an escalation Taiwan in the short-term as this would elongate the timeline again for economic recovery and new high end consumer camera spending.
This said, Rodie HR lenses still have resolution reserves and diffraction effects can be mitigated by image processing pipeline. So all good!
2024: new XT lenses and XT XL
2025 and beyond – let's hope for new sensor tech and lack of global economic shocks