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IQ5 rumors
- Thread starter eisbaer
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Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
It has nothing, literally nothing to do with EU rules. Its about the business case not being there for photo only manufacturers to bother.
54x40 sensors or potentially 54x36 in the new IQ5 if they do not broker a special deal with Sony, are an absolute niche product:
1) 99% of "normal" photographers are nowadays fine with 60-100 MPX - they value flexibility, compactness, workflow - and just don't have the cash to buy a 13k XT lens
2) Sony's IQ4 BSI tech has trickeld down to Leica M11, SL3, Sony 60 MPX systems although potentially there's still a difference in DR if measured on a bench given the electronics of the IQ4 - but 35mm only got these chips many years later so that's normal.
3) The photo world has fundamentally changed: iPhone is killer no.1 of digital cameras for the masses, then came the breakdown of the professional market for photo services during the pandemic and now with AI the outlook for commercial photography has again deteriorated - many classic commercial businesses are looking into ways of skipping the photographer to increase profits and time-to-market, especially in areas P1 photographers typically were strong: ie fashion (and e-com product photography) and automotive, formerly essential pillars of commercial photography, with bridal, sports, documentary, architectural photography being the remaining more resilient parts. What's the problem here? Except architecture, these are not exactly P1 areas. For bridal, sports, documentary you get a Canon R5 MK II or R1.
And even architecture is a bit under fire - real estate brokers use more automated capture systems to quickly create an apartment walkthrough and so what remains is post-build documentation commissioned by architects or fine art architectural photography (online prints / magazines) – cannot imagine its easy to recoup a P1 system investment let alone ask for more because you bring 250 megapixels to the party. And more and more hotels are just posting "true" snaps on booking.com - so not sure this is a huge business case to go for hotel marketing.
On the resolution front lastly you have AI uprez tools which get better by the day (e.g. Magnific AI) which also lessen the need to use that Rodie 138 with a Pano to the backdrops for Hollywood sets - a Hassy 100 MPX + uprez is sufficient.
That's a big problem for high end camera systems manufacturers because it means if commercial photographers can't make the numbers work anymore on a business basis meaning you can loan it, depreciate it etc. you lose a whole demographic of potential buyers.
Because of this, the people willing and wanting to pay P1 60k for such a system are:
1) Amateurs with money to burn - ie well-off boomers who spend some of their cash on photography to photograph some landscapes on their holiday trip
2) 0.1% of fine art photographers with a business case for it
3) High-end commercial photographers who still are in business, ie potentially in fashion, architecture, automotive
1) Is by far the biggest category - ie people who just don't care and love the resolution and technology.
That's such a small market, that it only makes sense to develop for it, if it is a byproduct for other areas and photo revenue becomes a cherry on top.
Phase has shifted towards B2B geospatial under the new PE ownership while their photo and C1 businsesess are most likely signficantly behind expectations.
Luckily, the B2B part is doing so well that it can carry the R&D for a new back.
For all other players it does make sense to hit a lower price point and sell a lot more units.
I do believe however, that there's enough 1) for ONE player to sell an ultra high end product to the amateur market because there's always going to be people who will love the fact that they can create a 600 MPX or more pano with a 60 XL on an Alpa Pano in a few seconds with the new IQ5 - its just a cool thing and ofc you'll have enormour flexibility in print with these specs.
In my case I'd want them to make me whole for the fact that I cannot upgrade my remaining non tilt XT lenses at reasonable cost before I invest in P1 gear again. And the trade-in cannot cost more than ideally a midpoint of 20-25k with an IQ4 to be traded in.
There's no way in hell I'd pay 60k for a new system in 2025.
And pls. 54x40. For 3:2 you can go 35mm systems which will soon hit 100 megapixels (M12, SL4, etc.).
54x40 sensors or potentially 54x36 in the new IQ5 if they do not broker a special deal with Sony, are an absolute niche product:
1) 99% of "normal" photographers are nowadays fine with 60-100 MPX - they value flexibility, compactness, workflow - and just don't have the cash to buy a 13k XT lens
2) Sony's IQ4 BSI tech has trickeld down to Leica M11, SL3, Sony 60 MPX systems although potentially there's still a difference in DR if measured on a bench given the electronics of the IQ4 - but 35mm only got these chips many years later so that's normal.
3) The photo world has fundamentally changed: iPhone is killer no.1 of digital cameras for the masses, then came the breakdown of the professional market for photo services during the pandemic and now with AI the outlook for commercial photography has again deteriorated - many classic commercial businesses are looking into ways of skipping the photographer to increase profits and time-to-market, especially in areas P1 photographers typically were strong: ie fashion (and e-com product photography) and automotive, formerly essential pillars of commercial photography, with bridal, sports, documentary, architectural photography being the remaining more resilient parts. What's the problem here? Except architecture, these are not exactly P1 areas. For bridal, sports, documentary you get a Canon R5 MK II or R1.
And even architecture is a bit under fire - real estate brokers use more automated capture systems to quickly create an apartment walkthrough and so what remains is post-build documentation commissioned by architects or fine art architectural photography (online prints / magazines) – cannot imagine its easy to recoup a P1 system investment let alone ask for more because you bring 250 megapixels to the party. And more and more hotels are just posting "true" snaps on booking.com - so not sure this is a huge business case to go for hotel marketing.
On the resolution front lastly you have AI uprez tools which get better by the day (e.g. Magnific AI) which also lessen the need to use that Rodie 138 with a Pano to the backdrops for Hollywood sets - a Hassy 100 MPX + uprez is sufficient.
That's a big problem for high end camera systems manufacturers because it means if commercial photographers can't make the numbers work anymore on a business basis meaning you can loan it, depreciate it etc. you lose a whole demographic of potential buyers.
Because of this, the people willing and wanting to pay P1 60k for such a system are:
1) Amateurs with money to burn - ie well-off boomers who spend some of their cash on photography to photograph some landscapes on their holiday trip
2) 0.1% of fine art photographers with a business case for it
3) High-end commercial photographers who still are in business, ie potentially in fashion, architecture, automotive
1) Is by far the biggest category - ie people who just don't care and love the resolution and technology.
That's such a small market, that it only makes sense to develop for it, if it is a byproduct for other areas and photo revenue becomes a cherry on top.
Phase has shifted towards B2B geospatial under the new PE ownership while their photo and C1 businsesess are most likely signficantly behind expectations.
Luckily, the B2B part is doing so well that it can carry the R&D for a new back.
For all other players it does make sense to hit a lower price point and sell a lot more units.
I do believe however, that there's enough 1) for ONE player to sell an ultra high end product to the amateur market because there's always going to be people who will love the fact that they can create a 600 MPX or more pano with a 60 XL on an Alpa Pano in a few seconds with the new IQ5 - its just a cool thing and ofc you'll have enormour flexibility in print with these specs.
In my case I'd want them to make me whole for the fact that I cannot upgrade my remaining non tilt XT lenses at reasonable cost before I invest in P1 gear again. And the trade-in cannot cost more than ideally a midpoint of 20-25k with an IQ4 to be traded in.
There's no way in hell I'd pay 60k for a new system in 2025.
And pls. 54x40. For 3:2 you can go 35mm systems which will soon hit 100 megapixels (M12, SL4, etc.).
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Uprez, useful as it often may be, can not add detail that isn’t in the source image. There will always be a case for better source image detail.
The more pertinent point here may be how many people are really capable of actually using a 250MPixel back to its full capability? I suspect this category is indeed tiny, but decidedly non-zero.
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
I think for photography and in this context photography P1 customers, potentially, the question is whether it matters if the add detail is generated or not. I think not so much to be honest except if you want to be somehow super principled, but commercially that does not matter really anymore these days.
From Gursky to countless modern fine art photographers, commercial pbotographers etc. – all use some sort of post with sometimes quite heavy edits, including removal and addition of elements. The new uprez AI tools from Magnific are truly on another level in terms of fidelity and you can combine it with layering techniques in PS to really blend it in perfectly.
Where higher res is useful is geospatial mapping as you get higher ground resolution, but for all other purposes arguably it is a bit moot.
I see the main benefit in flexibility in the sense that 250 or 300 megapixels would give you higher cropping flexibility.
Meaning: you shoot with a 40 HR or 43 XL and know that if need be its then also a 60, 90 etc. The new 40 XC will be a very flexible walkaround camera, especially with EVF as you can then really go from wide to normal to short tele and still have enough res for most practical purposes.
Ie you could then just have a 40XC and 90 XT SB and cover many options courtesy of the existing resolution to play with.
40 XC? [Sorry was out of country]
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I wouldn't be surprised if the higher resolution of an IQ5 would be one of the least important reasons for getting a IQ5.
I hope the IQ5 will offer the option of downsampling for those for whom anything more than 100MP is just overkill.
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
Steve Hendrix posted a pic of a XC40; I think their "mirrorless" camera is actually an IQ5 with the new Sony chip (probably 54x36), some updated internals the XC40 and some sort of EVF functionality.
If that's it, its a bit of a let-down as it is not a new line of AF lenses or a new body in front of the back, but rather the XC with a finally useable lens combo.
20k for a 40HR is ofc a massive non-starter as with the upcoming competition from Leica (S4, with 2.0 APO optics and also next-gen sensor) and potentially nextgen Fujis and Hassy bodies it becomes a bit ridiculous to pay 20k for one lens essentially which gets you a whole body plus multiple lenses from other manufacturers.
This said, there's ofc a market for the high end, as seen by XC sales which apparently DO exist in China especially.
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
Well Sensor + with 80 MPX would be amazing, essentially ultra clean ISO 200/400; also very crisp detail. Additionally, if they implement WIFI 7 and add support for running an EVF alongside tethering alongside third party x shutter (x shutter currently blocks tethering port) we would have a very nice setup. But they need to keep it below 25k USD with IQ4 trade-in anything else is madness in this battered economy. 25k USD is a lot of money when people can't pay living expenses and are losing their creative jobs - also pensioners need to see because money does get tight if costs rise and you live long due to modern medicine. Very curious how they play it and if they are reasonable.
Seeing the 40 XC though made me a bit sad because essentially it means no new camera body and no compact AF lenses ... for the mirrorless age.
Looks like the S4 APO 2.0 MF optics will be the most advanced and unique MF lenses available when they come out with no AF competition from P1. Ofc still possible that there's a new body, but the 40XC points to a continuation of their current approach which is to do minimal own new R&D and just re-use existing tech to the best extent possible - in this case a well known Rodie lens + X shutter + the XC frame introduced with the XC23 - ie dev. effort should be minimal as it is just a new helical.
New mirrorless camera would mean whole other ballgame of risk if it doesnt sell well given high price point.
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Yes indeed.
"Aug 30, 2024 Introducing the NEW Phase One XC40 Compact Camera built exclusively for the IQ4 150 digital back"
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
But I am not sure it was an announcement? Is there an official announcement?
So if the body is the same as the old XC does it mean we will have an EVF via the IQ5 back? Likely wirelessly?
Would have been nice if one can somehow mount the XC lenses in a modular way onto the XT. 20k for a lens where you only use the centre is a bit of a waste of beautiful IC
So if the body is the same as the old XC does it mean we will have an EVF via the IQ5 back? Likely wirelessly?
Would have been nice if one can somehow mount the XC lenses in a modular way onto the XT. 20k for a lens where you only use the centre is a bit of a waste of beautiful IC
Mexecutioner
Well-known member
That’s why I never buy anything. The fear of obsolescence takes over and it’s paralyzing. I’ll go back to doing sketches on a piece of paper, unless you’ve heard of a new pencil model in the horizon.
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
Ok so here's how it shapes up:
Next-gen sensor resolutions (resolutions from top of my head):
- Crop MF (Hasselblad, Leica, Fuji): ~180MP
- Phase One 54x36: ~250MP
- Phase One 54x40: ~300MP
Challenges for Phase One:
1. 54x36 format may struggle against Leica S4's value proposition as they will have a bit smaller resolution but incredible optics with APO 2.0 glass outperforming most likely Rodie HR
2. 250MP vs 180MP less compelling than 300MP vs 180MP
3. Pricing:
- 180MP group: Hasselblad/Fuji ~$8k, Leica $12-14k
- Phase One: $45-50k (or $25k with trade-in)
IQ5 could be successful with:
- Technological advancements (WiFi 7, more ports, X shutter, new battery, EVF, new processing)
- Improved dynamic range or even dual gain DR
- Fair trade-in and good price point vs. increased competition
Concerns:
- XC40 lens limited to IQ4 back, poor long-term value - not AF, needs EVF to be used in bright lighting conditions (IQ4 LV is cool, but not in bright sunlight)
- Need for modular, open system approach ignored by P1 because they think they can force people from AS, Alpa etc. to buy XT by ringfencing features
- P1 has no focus on investment value preservation seemingly - 40 XC is not useable on a large shift body, bound to IQ4, costs 20k
- Early XT lens buyers got massively burned - no excuse from anyone and no admission publicly; dealers stopped trade-in because even traded in XT lenses sit around
P1 will only succeed if they make an effort to surpass customer's expectations. For that they need to make a point internally towards their private equity owners that they need to invest and repair customer relationships - even if it means a short term dip in profitability - e.g. offer trade up for SB tilt at 2-3k for initial customers and change the ringfencing strategy.
At this stage they need to be open system to sell a maximum number of backs - strength of Cambo, AS and Alpa is also P1's strength ... hope they get that!
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Or, to be facetious, embraces it.
Will we see something worthwhile new tomorrow from Apple? Will the "Pro" models finally have four lenses? IMX903 sensor? Or will my iPhone 14Pro have to soldier on for another year.
At the time of IQ4's announcement on August 28, 2018, the current iPhone was the iPhone X. As revolutionary the iPhone X was, as modern it still looks, but performance-wise it's now completely outclassed; in particular its photographic capabilities are now just prehistoric.
Hard to believe that the IQ4 is still P1's current model!
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Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
It has to do with the fact that P1 was bought by investors who run the numbers where to invest further to get the highest return. P1 from 2018 didn't have this huge geospatial business which they have now. The margins are totally different there. If someone tells you:
1) Take a 100 bucks and make 105 out of it (photo) or 2) take 100 bucks and make 150 out of it (b2b geospatial) the decision is clear where the money goes.
Essentially P1's photo business received enough funding to not die outright, but that's it; while the capital went to other places.
Its a bit sad for the photography piece, but there's hope that the IQ5 will reinvigour the category, although the world has dramatically changed.
Look at C1 for example - I feel they completely lost the ambition to capture the Lightroom users and there are barely new features. I think AI is partially to blame for this.
Look at her – the bleeding edge of the Parisian AI fashion artist scene, hard at work replacing photographers, models, make up artists all at once:
www.instagram.com
She's one of the best upcoming AI artists for commercial purposes. Her work in fashion, pre-viz for conceptual interior design or her Tesla ad are completely mind blowing. This is why no one in commercial bothers with a P1 kit anymore for commercial work - the hype is full on to do everything with AI.
All photos there are AI generated from the comfort of a sofa with a nice coffee on the side.
What remains is the older gen amateur shooting his holiday trip with the tech cam, so to say.
1) Take a 100 bucks and make 105 out of it (photo) or 2) take 100 bucks and make 150 out of it (b2b geospatial) the decision is clear where the money goes.
Essentially P1's photo business received enough funding to not die outright, but that's it; while the capital went to other places.
Its a bit sad for the photography piece, but there's hope that the IQ5 will reinvigour the category, although the world has dramatically changed.
Look at C1 for example - I feel they completely lost the ambition to capture the Lightroom users and there are barely new features. I think AI is partially to blame for this.
Look at her – the bleeding edge of the Parisian AI fashion artist scene, hard at work replacing photographers, models, make up artists all at once:
Login • Instagram
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www.instagram.com
She's one of the best upcoming AI artists for commercial purposes. Her work in fashion, pre-viz for conceptual interior design or her Tesla ad are completely mind blowing. This is why no one in commercial bothers with a P1 kit anymore for commercial work - the hype is full on to do everything with AI.
All photos there are AI generated from the comfort of a sofa with a nice coffee on the side.
What remains is the older gen amateur shooting his holiday trip with the tech cam, so to say.
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First Instagram posting:Look at her – the bleeding edge of the Parisian AI fashion artist scene, hard at work replacing photographers, models, make up artists all at once:
Login • Instagram
Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.
She's one of the best upcoming AI artists for commercial purposes. Her work in fashion, pre-viz for conceptual interior design or her Tesla ad are completely mind blowing. This is why no one in commercial bothers with a P1 kit anymore for commercial work - the hype is full on to do everything with AI.
All photos there are AI generated from the comfort of a sofa with a nice coffee on the side.
What remains is the older gen amateur shooting his holiday trip with the tech cam, so to say.
Like this quote recently: “If you think AI is just about typing words into a prompt box and hitting enter, then you are very, very far behind.”Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
You need to see there are a lot of fashion photographers out of jobs right now and all they do is focus on improving their AI game to be able to offer new services to fashion brands. Those who didn't give up due to lack of jobs (Paris is expensive) are now learning 24/7 how to improve their AI game.
Buying a Phase 1 camera with 300 megapixels helps such a person 0, but really 0, to pay rent - in fact it would be outright stupid and would require a loan and debt for no increased income. It is a far better investment to buy a workstation with a high end graphics card to develop their own fine tuned fashion AI models. Similarly, top-end car photographers will fuse AI with photography via retouch to create stunning imagery in a shorter time frame at a lower price point.
Contrast this with a fashion / car photographer in 2008 or so with a Hasselblad 39 megapixel system - he was the go-to place for great quality and colour able to command a high premium per photo for his gear investment.
That's all gone. No one cares anymore.
Its literally mainly for fine art to create stunning large scale pics that there's a benefit still, IMHO.
Buying a Phase 1 camera with 300 megapixels helps such a person 0, but really 0, to pay rent - in fact it would be outright stupid and would require a loan and debt for no increased income. It is a far better investment to buy a workstation with a high end graphics card to develop their own fine tuned fashion AI models. Similarly, top-end car photographers will fuse AI with photography via retouch to create stunning imagery in a shorter time frame at a lower price point.
Contrast this with a fashion / car photographer in 2008 or so with a Hasselblad 39 megapixel system - he was the go-to place for great quality and colour able to command a high premium per photo for his gear investment.
That's all gone. No one cares anymore.
Its literally mainly for fine art to create stunning large scale pics that there's a benefit still, IMHO.
georgecleansman
Member
If you describe the poor situation of, for example, fashion photographers and other professional photographers due to the increasing competition from AI, one could come up with the idea that Phase One could sell significantly fewer IQ4 or IQ5 in future.
That would leave only the untalented amateur photographers like me. Is it then even worthwhile for Phase One to continue developing the photographic sector or to concentrate exclusively on the industrial sector? Perhaps a P1 photographer would no longer be taken so seriously in the future?
Paul Spinnler
Well-known member
I think it is very clear from the history (ie lack of new backs) of recent product launches, the lower engagement on the forum that Phase has de-emphasised photography and that the amateur segment is the main remaining pillar. They even rebranded the division a few years back to bespoke photography and had a campaign where they interviewed essentially people at the end of their careers pursuing photography as a passion … with the goal to print some things for an exhibition … none of these photographers are of course really known and the campaign has long been called off.
Go search instagram for XC tags - you will find 2 or three horrible shots not worthy of 60k investment
This doesn’t mean P1 shooters are amateurs in a quality sense; I am saying that’s the remaining core customer segment that will buy that gear as the commercial photographers cannot justify a business case, with exceptions as always
One addition: That's the reason why we cannot expect huge R&D into bespoke - as long as it can be sold as a byproduct of the B2B side they'll sell stuff. E.g. given there's a new sensor Phase will develop and IQ5, at least for B2B - then they'll also have sth to sell for the photography customers. But photography in itself will only like now do minimal stuff with existing parts. E.g. the new XT XL will be a modified Cambo body, the new XC is a re-hash of the XC23 which was more or less a simple hack to take XT lenses and attach them direct etc.
There will be new products, but don't expect a whole new system for mirrorless for example at a lower price point to match Hassy or Fuji. It'll remain bespoke for the most high end tier with the biggest innovation being the new IQ5 at one point, driven by virtue of the fact that there's now a 250 megapixel sensor available from Sony.
Go search instagram for XC tags - you will find 2 or three horrible shots not worthy of 60k investment
This doesn’t mean P1 shooters are amateurs in a quality sense; I am saying that’s the remaining core customer segment that will buy that gear as the commercial photographers cannot justify a business case, with exceptions as always
One addition: That's the reason why we cannot expect huge R&D into bespoke - as long as it can be sold as a byproduct of the B2B side they'll sell stuff. E.g. given there's a new sensor Phase will develop and IQ5, at least for B2B - then they'll also have sth to sell for the photography customers. But photography in itself will only like now do minimal stuff with existing parts. E.g. the new XT XL will be a modified Cambo body, the new XC is a re-hash of the XC23 which was more or less a simple hack to take XT lenses and attach them direct etc.
There will be new products, but don't expect a whole new system for mirrorless for example at a lower price point to match Hassy or Fuji. It'll remain bespoke for the most high end tier with the biggest innovation being the new IQ5 at one point, driven by virtue of the fact that there's now a 250 megapixel sensor available from Sony.
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That exact thought has gone through my mind so many times! Would be much easier, but then I’d have boxes of sketch books