MFD 2025 – state of the industry and outlook

[erlingmm]

You don't need a tilt screen if Phase One can solve the stupid issue of USB-C not working with the iPad towards IQ4 150

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I personally don't care about tilt screen and the compact build makes it legendarily robust - I'd prefer the robustness, but at least they should bring out an EVF option, cabled or wireless. So the dream would be IQ4 body with upgraded internals and expanded I/O to allow for EVF and finally some better battery life.

 

[Adammork]

I think before the new Sony sensor arrived the strategy, given it is private equity owned, was to just focus on B2B and milk the photo business max, even if it meant a declining user base - it was all about per customer and per product sale profitability, meaning keep prices high and serve fewer and fewer people buying new.

With the perspective of the new Sony chip I think it shifted from passive milking to getting a bit of capital for marketing and new products, albeit still with the limitation that everything needs to be profitable quickly. The capital mostly flowed into custom products with Cambo and SK via Japan.

The XC40 is an example of this - they ofc needed to pay Cambo to do a new mount, but the pricing was so high that even with 10-20 units per year they'll make a handsome profit covering the running costs of the photo division managers, the customer support etc.

Now with the new Sony chip everyone sees this wave of upgrades, so I suppose there's now internally more goodwill towards investing in the business, but it remains a big question mark how big that upgrade community still is in today's market. Are we going to see a few hundred upgrades or a few thousand? I wouldn't want to bet in today's market, to be honest.

It's a function of two things, right: 1) The value proposition of the new back - is it WOW - and 2) are people still willing to pay 25k with tradein or even 50k for a new back.

If I were them I'd make sure there's enough capital to really make it a great product and also price it aggressively at say 20-24k with trade-in ... we'll see soon enough.

I just know that even 25k with trade-in is a lot harder to justify nowadays than in 2019 ...

I'm afraid that they will be tempted to skip the trade in program that we all take for granted because it have always been like that.

With the focus on B2B market and the main market for their "normal" backs is now mainly wealthy amateurs in their biggest market - for some of those people it could be a plus that if you had a IQ5 mounted on your ALPA, in the row of other photographs, you show you have the ability to pay "full" price instead of a "cheap" trade-in....

As you say with the XC40 even if they will sell less units they will probably make more money on fewer units, with less trouble aftersales...

I also have the hunt that e new back will be very like the old, just with a new sensor and a tilt screen - when you have start working with the tiltable EVF on the Fuji 100II, it's a tough sell to omit that on a new back.

 

[FloatingLens]

Yes, but even the last two P1 generations, IQ3 and IQ4, have various handling issues that in 2025 many may not want to deal with anymore. In particular, slow readout speed, critical when electronic shutter is used. Others are slow startup, short battery life, no or limited wireless operation or transfer.

For me the two critical features missing from the CFV-100c are:
- two exposure (highlight, shadow) averaging, like IQ4's Dual EXP+
- long exposure averaging, like IQ4's automatic frame averaging
Maybe a Mark II CFV-100c!

I second that. That would create considerable appeal to upgrade to an X2D or CFV.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Well they still want to make money and I do believe that w/o trade-in they'll not have a feasible business, tbh.

The XC 23 was at first only sold as kit and then not too long after they went back to selling it standalone. If they do not offer a trade-in I am out and its not because I could not afford it, but because principally I wouldn't spend 50k on a company or product where the benefit is not extremely large and where history has shown that they do burn customers. If you pay 50k and after 9 months they realize no one is buying it and they offer trade-ins to get to 20k - c'mon you can't do that.

Case in point are the XT lenses. If you bought them early on you're stuck with never upgradeable lenses and the trade-in prices they offer are a complete insult.

The market is dramatically smaller for 50k backs than for 25k trade-in backs. I'd say that's the difference between 200 sales and 5000 sales, just from a gut perspective.

 

[SrMphoto]

I find a tilt screen important when working on a tripod as it allows me to keep the camera lower and more stable while maintaining a comfortable shooting position. Using an iPad is even better but more complicated and heavier, therefore I avoid it.

For me, the lack of tilt screen and the need to work with C1 instead of Adobe are the main obstacles.

 

[ThdeDude]

... The P1 dealer in conversation mentioned the upcoming 247mpx back in conversation though advised it was 3:2 - of which they mentioned it is likely the IQ4 will be a back with some longevity/preference for us fashion photographers given the 4:3 ratio. ...

Take this as evidence that something is in the works at P1. Thx for sharing with us.

Read somewhere that P1's IQX nomenclature denotes a new generation of electronics, but not necessarily a new sensor. For example, the IQ4 100MP Trichromatic uses the same sensor as the IQ3 100MP Trichromatic but (allegedly) uses the IQ4 electronics. Hence, a version of the IQ5 using the sensor of the IQ4-150 would not be a first.

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Take this as evidence that something is in the works at P1. Thx for sharing with us.

Read somewhere that P1's IQX nomenclature denotes a new generation of electronics, but not necessarily a new sensor. For example, the IQ4 100MP Trichromatic uses the same sensor as the IQ3 100MP Trichromatic but (allegedly) uses the IQ4 electronics. Hence, a version of the IQ5 using the sensor of the IQ4-150 would not be a first.

I've said already months ago that it's confirmed. As is the Summarit spec for the S4 and the fact that SL lenses can be adapted.

I had been given confirmation on the IQ5 / 247 / 3:2 from a direct source in the know. Its coming and its gonna be the stock Sony chip.

My understanding is also that the trade-in program will remain (of course nothing is certain, but that was the thinking earlier in the year), but its unclear what other improvements one will get for dropping 25 grand and handing in one's IQ4. It for sure needs to be a lot better as the IQ4 is already awesome.

Quasi certain is also the XT XL as releasing a SB 90 XT tilt and electric extender would only make sense if you can use more than 12mm shift ... the whole point of the 90 HR is to shift so the back extender makes only sene in this context.

Big question: IS THERE AN UPGRADE WAVE OR NOT?

Its the question for dealers and P1 alike ... they better stay at 25k trad-in as if not it will be a small splash and then no more substantial sales.

 

[ThdeDude]

I had been given confirmation on the IQ5 / 247 / 3:2 from a direct source in the know. Its coming and its gonna be the stock Sony chip.

O.K. Will take what you wrote at face value. 54mm x 36 mm it will be.



<61MP sensor 36 X 24mm (3:2) 864m2 Factor: 1


51/100MP sensor 43.8 x 32.9mm (4:3) 1444m2 Factor: 1.6


247MP sensor 53.96mm x 35.97mm (3:2) 1931m2 Factor: 2.2


100/150MP sensor 53.7 x 40.4mm (4:3) 2169m2 Factor: 2.5


(Replaced with a table using 36x24 as the base format)


Conceptionally, there was something to be said for the 645 sensor size, a true medium format, but c'est la vie.

(But on the other hand, a bit more shift for Digaron-S lenses is a plus.)

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I wish there was a 54x40 ... like many others ... the only interesting question with regard to 3:2 itself is the following IMHO:

Is one-shot 3:2 247 MPX cropped to 54x40 aspect ratio, ie cutting the sides, higher res still if you go down one focal length.

So let's say your favorite focal length is 50mm. You love it on the 54x40.

If you use the 40 HR and crop away the sides, do you have more res at the same quality than the 50mm before with a similar view? That's the test I am interested in.

On a net basis the 250 chip cropped is still higher res than 150 uncropped, so if that's a net gain you could argue the tiny bit loss in perspective due ot the smaller height if you want the LFish aspect ratio does not matter overall.

And true, a higher res sensor should make the 35-S more attractive. Cropping into a 250 megapixel picture of the 35-S should yield a good alternative for the 40/50HR unstitched in a very compact and versatile format.

 

[ThdeDude]

So let's say your favorite focal length is 50mm. You love it on the 54x40.

If you use the 40 HR and crop away the sides, do you have more res at the same quality than the 50mm before with a similar view? That's the test I am interested in.

Quality? You mean resolution?

Taken from the same position, or could you move in closer with the 40HR?

Should be not to hard to calculate, taking account of the slightly more elongated aspect ratio and shorter side view, but I am right now not in the mood for calculations.

Wonder whether Leica S4 will use the same sensor for their upcoming S4!

 

[algrove]

For the time being, I will not go back to a tech camera even though the joy of getting it right was often as much fun as seeing the final image.

I now print smaller 17" max since my walls are full, it seems most prints just go into a box for future generations to see.

That's my state of affairs. M3, M6TTL, O serie, Barnack 1931 1 C, plenty of M11-all variants except for the D with modern and Mandler lenses plus a few LLL, Q3, Q343, SL3. Plus Hasselblad 10 CF lenses (180 my favorite) , 500C, 503CW, SWC, 903 SWC. 38V for my CFV 100C. Then Fuji 100SII BSI and 50SII non-BSI which for the moment like better than the BSI irregardless of MP.

With all this s**t I do not need more. NO!

 

[Paul Spinnler]

Well you could sell all your color handheld Leica and Fujis and buy the S4 and an M12 Mono down the road. The S4 at one point will also most likely have adapters for all the Fuji glass as its focal flange distance will be extremely low.

That way you have less and more!

 

[anyone]

I now print smaller 17" max since my walls are full, it seems most prints just go into a box for future generations to see.

I can recommend to swap the prints from time to time. I do this at a regular base and like it, even though my wall space is limited.

Nice selection of cameras and lenses!

 

[Shashin]

Yes, by that measure - reinventing the wheel - we could all just walk around with an iPhone; but there's ofc a tactile experience of "making an image" with a beautifully manufactured tech camera which introduces a meditative aspect to the process which still is worthwhile IMHO; so I do hope that somehow tech cam manufacturers can innovate, e.g. by building new bodies which can adapt also mirrorless lenses, so that the shift cam concept can be appreciated by the current generation of photographers which are mirrorless natives and have never touched a 4x5 or similar.

Let's say one does have the new Hassy cam and three lenses - if there was a gateaway to reuse the optics in a shiftable manner on digital backs - I am sure that would lure more people into tech cams overall.

You actually point out the problem with the "experience." You come from an age where mechanical cameras were considered the top of the heap and had much greater use in photography. That has not been true for those in photography today for some time, especially where you can do perspective control in post. And the "tactile" experience has shifted with the technology where it is seamlessly driven by a GUI and a few clicks. As technology progresses, so do the values around that technology. I put together a Linhof digital view camera system together for a college photography program. There just was no interest.

 

[ThdeDude]

algrove,

You are surely not the only one having rather too much gear.

Right now I am contemplating either transforming retired gear into "arty" display of memorabilia (really can't call it piece of art) that I could hang on my wall, or just sell for whatever price on eBay.

But a modern DB would definitely a step forward to those who still have older DB (and are invested in whatever system).

At least for me, more fluidity, more ease of use should definitely lead to more use, and hence, to more photographs.

MN

 

[Paul Spinnler]

You actually point out the problem with the "experience." You come from an age where mechanical cameras were considered the top of the heap and had much greater use in photography. That has not been true for those in photography today for some time, especially where you can do perspective control in post. And the "tactile" experience has shifted with the technology where it is seamlessly driven by a GUI and a few clicks. As technology progresses, so do the values around that technology. I put together a Linhof digital view camera system together for a college photography program. There just was no interest.

I am sad thinking that this is a key driver actually ... that's why it is important to have workshops and transmit this concept of "making an image", which, I think, can still be longed for as a reaction to the modern easy way with compact cameras or even AI.

The SL with APO optics is argubaly already enough as an architectural camera if you factor in post-processing (one click keystone correction in C1 and the ultra high quality of the megapixels themselves courtesy of Leica's superior optical designs). You can probably be a lot more nimble with an APO SL 21 and SL 28 with the SL3 than a tech cam kit ...

But its not the same feeling ...

 

[ThdeDude]

But its not the same feeling ...

And If I may say so, also not necessarily the same results, especially if shift and tilt are to be used.

 

[tenmangu81]

I wondered if I would have switched some day to a tech cam, but, after having jumped to Hassy X bodies and lenses, I decided that I won't. Tech cams are still very good at architecture and, to a less extent, landscapes, but with post-processing tools we have now, they are not that much essential. They were, indeed, for film cameras before digital era.
The difference between smartphone shooters and people contributing to that forum is (I hope) the ability of finding the right composition, light and moment.
And I am sure I haven't the same feeling when shooting with my Hassy X and when I use my smartphone.... In addition, some images are forbidden with tech cams when you try to catch the "decisive moment".

 

[Paul Spinnler]

I wondered if I would have switched some day to a tech cam, but, after having jumped to Hassy X bodies and lenses, I decided that I won't. Tech cams are still very good at architecture and, to a less extent, landscapes, but with post-processing tools we have now, they are not that much essential. They were, indeed, for film cameras before digital era.
The difference between smartphone shooters and people contributing to that forum is (I hope) the ability of finding the right composition, light and moment.
And I am sure I haven't the same feeling when shooting with my Hassy X and when I use my smartphone.... In addition, some images are forbidden with tech cams when you try to catch the "decisive moment".

Would you buy a tech cam body if you could reuse all your lenses - e.g. Hassy X with aperture control?